The days ahead
Welcome to “The Foreseeable Future”, the official blog of FutureNovo.com. Since both FutureNovo and this blog are just being launched, I’d like to begin this entry by introducing some of the ideas behind them.
I firmly believe that technology develops in a manner that is increasingly interconnective and inherently accelerating. That is to say, as technological advances are made, there is a natural tendency for them to bring about still more advances ever more rapidly. This isn’t a new notion and many people have dedicated significant thought and insight into the subject in recent years. While this has led to many discussions, articles and web sites debating whether or not such a phenomena is actually occurring, FutureNovo accepts this premise from the outset and sets out to learn how we can put this knowledge to use.
The concept of man, the tool builder, has long fascinated me. Since Homo habilis, and no doubt eons before that, humankind has effected influence over its environment with the tools it has created or discovered. This has allowed us to expand from the savannahs of our origin into every corner of the planet and with the advent of space flight, beyond even that. With every problem faced, with every challenge presented, we’ve created methods and solutions of which our ancestors could not even dream.
And now we are faced with a new challenge. For the very accelerating pace that has yielded more and ever-greater tools is threatening to crash over us like a technological tsunami. Because this growth is exponential.
As many of us recall from our school days, an exponential curve is one that is based on geometric growth. Beginning with even the smallest of growth rates, a function of N=N0·ek·t yields a graph that slopes ever-so incrementally upward at first only to suddenly explode into near verticality. The relatively short period of transition in between is known as the knee of the curve. A number of people believe that the era in which we are now living corresponds to this knee. Several others refute this, saying it’s a matter of perspective and that we can always argue that we exist at a time corresponding to the curve’s knee. But I’m of the opinion that this argument is abstract and doesn’t take into consideration the time-frames of our lives, our institutions, and eventually even our thought processes. The fact is, that if technological advancement continues to occur more and ever-more rapidly, it will overwhelm our innate ability to plan for it, adapt to it, even comprehend it. Without planning and preparation, we will be overcome by our very creations. And it will come far faster than we expect.
Which brings me to the purpose of FutureNovo. FutureNovo is a web site dedicated to utilizing the technology of today to prepare for the technology of tomorrow. As its slogan states: Anticipate the future. Currently, the site combines a wiki, a forum, applets and other tools to aid in addressing the uncertainties and challenges that lie ahead in our inevitable future. (More about inevitability in a later entry.) FutureNovo is intended as something of an experiment and only time and participation will tell whether or not it succeeds. Ideally, as the web site progresses, new tools and concepts will be added with the intent of providing better ways of preparing for what is to come.
And only the future knows what that will be.