FutureNovo:FutureLines
From FutureNovo - Anticipating things to come
One of the principal concepts behind FutureNovo is the FutureLine. Like most timelines, it is a tool, a graphical representation of events relative to one another. More specifically, FutureLines are used to create timelines for forecasting the timing and likelihood of future technologies and applications. The term FutureLine refers both generally to the set of timelines at FutureNovo (including FutureLines, GroupLines, FutureSnaps and EventLines) and specifically to the timelines generated by individual users. Each registered user has the ability to build and maintain their own personal FutureLine, adding and adjusting future events and their timings as they think appropriate.
(Instructions for including FutureLines in articles can be found at 'Using FutureLines').
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[edit] Collective Intelligence
While an interesting exercise that will hopefully lead to many stimulating articles and discussions, the FutureLines have a deeper purpose. By combining the data from all of the users’ FutureLines, GroupLines will be assembled, providing what will hopefully be useful and unexpected insights. As users adjust their individual Futurelines based on the information and arguments put forth by others in the FutureNovo community, a consensus of sorts may be reached. Hopefully, this consensus will bear some relationship to the likelihood and timing of actual events – just as occurs at betting events, such as horse races. (See Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki and Parimutuel betting)
On the other hand, it can be argued that this is very similar to the forecasting methodology known as the 'Delphi Method'. Traditionally done with a group of experts, one of the issues with this method is that the degree of knowledge and familiarity will vary considerably among members of the group, skewing the consensus. The collective intelligence view put forth by Surowiecki in his book argues that with a large enough and random enough group, the errors are smoothed out, resulting in a more accurate outcome. While this may apply for queries that have a significant 'common sense' element, the future in general and many of the anticipated technologies in specific require considerable specialized knowledge.
[edit] Assessing Success
While it will be difficult to assess the successfulness of this approach initially, we think it's an idea worth pursuing. Because the FutureLines will be continually editable at an individual level, snapshots called FutureSnaps will be retained for GroupLines as well as individual FutureLines, in order to be able to better judge the accuracy of their forecasts over time.
[edit] Timeline widget
The FutureLines are generated using the SIMILE Timeline widget.
